The Shifting Od…

23Jan12

The Shifting Odds on the GOP Nomination & Obama’s Clichés

 

I receive press releases from Paddy Power, “Ireland’s largest bookmaker and a leading provider of gaming services in the UK, Australia and Ireland.” Most of the releases reflect predictable shifts in odds, but today’s release indicates how suddenly and dramatically the Republican primary changed in South Carolina: “While Romney remains the favourite for the Republican nomination, his odds have taken a significant slide from 1/14 to 2/5, while Gingrich’s odds have been chopped from 6/1 before the South Carolina Primary to 2/1.”

(The legality of betting on elections is a bit vague. Chicago-based Nadex filed a request with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to list contracts on the victor of the 2012 presidential race and the majority parties in the House and Senate.)

You can also bet on which cliché Obama will use first in Tuesday’s State of the Union Address:

Cliché Betting: What Will Obama say first

  • 8/1      We have more work to do
  • 10/1     Health Care reform
  • 10/1     As I stand here today
  • 12/1     Fundamental belief
  • 12/1     God Bless America
  • 12/1     Crossroads of history
  • 12/1     Defining moment
  • 12/1     Make Washington work
  • 14/1     Common purpose
  • 16/1     Pursuit of happiness
  • 16/1     Building a better America
  • 16/1     Reduce the deficit
  • 18/1     War on terror
  • 18/1     It won’t be easy
  • 18/1     Hungry for change
  • 18/1     My civil liberties
  • 20/1     Honour for me
  • 20/1     I have a dream
  • 20/1     Willing to listen to each other
  • 20/1     Yes, we can
  • 20/1     Don’t get me wrong
  • 25/1     Hard to believe
  • 25/1     I’m fired up
  • 25/1     Withdraw our troops
  • 25/1     There are better days ahead
  • 25/1     Do Nothing Congress
  • 25/1     We’ll have to make hard choices
  • 25/1     We can be one people
  • 25/1     A new direction
  • 33/1     For far too long
  • 33/1     Safe from harm
  • 33/1     Jobs to the jobless
  • 33/1     Reshapes our economy
  • 40/1     Deepest gratitude
  • 40/1     Greatness of our nation
  • 40/1     Possibilities of this nation
  • 40/1     Florida Primary
  • 50/1     Believe in what this country can be
  • 50/1     Unity is the great need of the hour
  • 50/1     In the face of despair, you believe there can be hope
  • 50/1     We can work together to keep our country safe
  • 50/1     Abiding faith
  • 66/1     Brighter day will come
  • 66/1     Publish tax returns
  • 66/1     Washington has a long way to go
  • 80/1     Overcome the adversity
  • 80/1     Bloated federal government
  • 100/1    Diversity of my heritage
  • 100/1    Yes, we might
  • 250/1    Life is like a box of chocolates

“Don’t get me wrong”? Well, his critics would probably say he’s less of a doer than aPretender . . .

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